QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18 ARLP018
From Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA
Ft Wayne, IN April 30, 2004
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K9LA
Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, is filling in this week for Tad Cook, K7RA. Tad had some windstorm damage at his QTH from a fallen tree, and at the time of this writing he is without electricity and phone service.
This report covers the period Friday April 23 through Thursday April 29.
Solar activity was at moderate levels at the beginning of the period, with several M1 and M2 class flares. Solar activity decreased to low levels in the latter half of the reporting period. Solar activity is forecast to be low for the next several days.
Geophysical activity ranged from quite to active levels during the reporting period due to several isolated active periods occurring at high latitudes. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at an active level on Friday, and return to quiet to unsettled levels on Saturday and Sunday.
The VOACAP and W6ELProp tutorials mentioned in last week's bulletin are intended to be introductory-level discussions of these readily available software packages. Both of the tutorials show how to download the software and set up the options. A sample prediction is run in each, and the outputs are discussed.
For those interested in a more in-depth look at VOACAP, check out "What Is VOACAP Trying to Tell Me?" by N6BV and "VOACAP Quick Guide" by OH6BG - both of these are on the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.
As Cycle 23 continues its descent (the smoothed sunspot number for May is predicted to be around 35 - a far cry from the peak of 121 in April 2000), 10-meter aficionados are becoming more and more dejected. On the other hand, 160-meter aficionados are perking up as solar minimum approaches.
If you're interested in 160-meter propagation and are going to Dayton, check out the Topband Dinner on Friday night (contact George, W8UVZ, via email at, firstname.lastname@example.org for more information). Eric, K3NA, will give a program about the 3B9C 160-meter QSOs.
The numbers for this week will be in next week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin.