QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 16, 2001
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7VVV
Average sunspot numbers and solar flux rose this week. Daily sunspot number averages were up nearly 48 points, and average solar flux was up nearly 6 points. Geomagnetic indices finally settled down, conditions were quiet, and the planetary A index was in the single digits on every day. Monday was very quiet, with a planetary A index of 2, mid-latitude A index of 1, and both planetary and mid-latitude K indices at 0 or 1 for most of the day. Combined with a rising solar flux, this was a good day for HF propagation.
Solar flux is expected to decline over the next few days. Predicted flux values for Friday through Monday are 205, 205, 195 and 190. Solar flux should rise above 210 again after November 23. There are no geomagnetic disturbances expected over the next few days, which should be good for the ARRL November Phone Sweepstakes this weekend. Besides the contest, this weekend will be good for watching the Leonids meteor shower. This will be one of the best displays in years, and occurs Sunday morning across North America around 0900-1100z, and around California and the Pacific at 1100-1500z.
W1DGM wrote to say he noticed a mistake in last week's bulletin, where the last sentence in paragraph one said the ''planetary A index rose to 8 and then 7 for several three hour reporting periods.'' That should have read ''planetary K index.''
Here are some path projections for this weekend's Sweepstakes contest.
Sunspot numbers for November 8 through 14 were 216, 175, 258, 222, 252, 234 and 222 with a mean of 225.6. 10.7 cm flux was 247.8, 270.8, 245.9, 234, 227.3, 231.6 and 217.2, with a mean of 239.2, and estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 6, 4, 2, 3 and 3 with a mean of 3.9.